The Squirrels Are Watching

Sexism and Racism

Angry women refused to reward misogyny (this is, vote for Obama). A response to that, broken up into eight helpful points and some advice to Obama and Hillary:

1. Sexism doesn’t necessarily mean fewer votes

Did sexism play a role in Hillary’s downward spiral? Sure. As the linked posts above show, there are plenty of examples of that — but did that translate into fewer votes for Hillary? I’m not so sure. First, the morons behind the “Stop running for president and make me a sandwhich” aren’t necessarily Obama voters. I suspect they’re rooting for McCain or perhaps more likely likely, aren’t even voting. These are the Howard Sterns of the world — they’re shock jocks (no pun intended) craving attention, not political operatives. On the other hand, these misogynistic activities have clearly energized Hillary supporters and angered women everywhere. At least some of them are now more likely to vote for her. Indeed, part of the explanation for Hillary’s comeback in New Hampshire was that women felt she was unfairly being picked on, and women voted overwhelmingly for her.

So did sexism hurt Hillary at the ballot box? Unsure.The reasoning could go either way. This is actually the sort of thing that you might be able to get an answer with by sifting through the exit poll data, but I’d prefer it be done by someone with better stat skills and more time than me.

2. Sexism doesn’t necessarily mean fewer delegates

Superdelegates generally vote based on three criteria: political connections, general electability, and whom they actually like. Let’s deal with the first. There’s a lot of anger at the “establishment” and the “old boys club” for trying to force out the female candidate in favor of the male one. I find this a little strange as Bill Clinton is clearly part of the old boys club, he clearly supports Hillary, and there’s no shortage of people who owe the Clintons a favor. You could argue that some of establishment, such as Kerry and Kennedy, dislike this Clintonian domination of the party and are keen to boot them out. That’s an argument about the Clintons however, not about Hillary’s gender.

As for general electability, I really haven’t heard anyone in the Democratic establishment make the argument that Hillary can’t win because she’s female. I have heard, however, the argument that Obama can’t win white people, made rather explicitly by Hillary herself.

So that just leaves likability — and it’s possible that a large number of delegates just don’t like Hillary. But I’m not sure if delegates like Hillary more or less than the general public (see point number one on that).

3. Racism hurt Obama

When Clinton supporters mention race, they usually infer it’s been a good thing for Obama. In some cases, it certainly has. It’s not hard to find an Obama supporter who might have voted for someone else had Obama been white. Yet in many cases, Obama’s race has been a bad thing. The West Virginia exit polls found Obama’s race affected him negatively. And while not about race per se, Obama’s Muslim heritage has resulted in an unusual amount of emphasis placed on his middle name and subsequent allegations about his patriotism. Both of these play some role in Obama’s difficulties with Jewish voters. And being black didn’t help with Hispanics (although how much it hurt is up for debate).

Yes, Obama has overwhelmingly won the African-American vote — but Hillary was leading in black votes prior to South Carolina. And so did Bill Clinton before he made some unfortunate references to Jesse Jackson. And Hillary does lead among women. Yes, the lead among women is smaller than Obama’s lead among blacks — but then again, there are vastly more women than there are black people in America.

Yes, no one’s made a Facebook group called “Stop running for president and shine my shoes you uppity terrorist negro,” but I would argue that, frat boys aside, people take the allegation that Obama is Muslim Manchurian candidate more seriously than they do Hillary’s gender.

So again, net effect of Obama’s race? Unclear. Exit poll drilling is needed, but it’s certainly not so clear cut.

4. Racism and sexism are BOTH bad — why quibble which is worst?

What bothers me the most is this argument about whether sexism or racism is worse. They’re both clearly bad, and efforts to address them are not mutually exclusive. A black man can make the world less sexist and a white woman can make the world less racist. You don’t need to push a woman to the top to break the glass ceiling. You just need a rock, thrown hard. I understand than in the furor over race, Hillary supporters are annoyed that sexism isn’t brought up too. But then again, neither is anti-Semitism, homophobia, or xenophobia. The real frustration isn’t about sexism vs. racism — it’s just that the mainstream media likes Obama better and is more willing to over the “isms” relevant to him (in this case, racism). And the reason the media likes Obama better isn’t because of his race or Hillary’s gender. After all, no one took Al Sharpton seriously in 2004. They like Obama simple because he’s new, he’s a good speaker, and his life story is interesting.

5. Sexism isn’t Obama’s fault

All of the above isn’t to diminish sexism in this country. It’s there, it’s real, and it’s really bad. But it’s not as if Obama ordered his “Obama-bots” to be misogynists. It’s not as if Obama and MSNBC convene in the wee hours of the morning to decide what unfair plan of attack they should make on Hillary today. Obama certainly should go out of his way to condemn sexism, but it’s not as if Hillary goes out of her way to condemn Bill Cunningham.

6. Beware the echo chamber

I mean this in two ways. First, the misogynists that Clinton supporters are railing against tend to be in a few areas — namely the media and Silicon Valley (i.e. the Internet). After some time in Silicon Valley working on a startup, I can certainly attest that valley is much more comfortable with race (lots of Asians doing business here) than with gender (not a lot of female startup founders). That may be reflected to some extent in the blogosphere. And if all you watch is MSNBC, Chris Matthews does come off a sexist jerk.

The thing is — that’s not America. That’s certainly not the Obama campaign. And while MSNBC has some influence and while Silicon Valley has loads of cash, it’s not as if there’s a massive sexist conspiracy to bring down female presidential candidates than must be repudiated.

The second meaning is that you have to be very careful about what is and is not a sexist comment. Was Bill Clinton’s comparison of Obama to Jesse Jackson racist? Maybe — but maybe it just be an over-reaction. Likewise, are the efforts by the superdelegates to force Hillary out part of some old boy’s network? Well, if you spend all your time getting outraged over the “make me a sandwhich” crowd and then hop over here, then yes, it does look that way. Yet evaluated from an external perspective, maybe the superdelegates want Hillary out because the delegate math just isn’t working in her favor.

7. Hillary is losing because of her campaign, not because of external forces

Sexism certainly hurt Hillary (although the net effect is still to be determined), but that’s not the only (nor even the biggest) reason why she’s losing. Some possible answers here.

8. Anger leads to the Dark Side

Hillary is losing. You’re angry. Be careful. It’s not very good for you. Bill Clinton once said something about when faced with a choice between hope and fear, you should choose hope. Decisions based on fear tend to be bad ones. I (and Yoda) would also argue that the same applies to anger.

Besides, anger (at least of the “let’s write long blog posts” kind) is just bad politics. I suspect part of the reason Obama does as well as he does is that he remains cool under pressure — something that McCain and Clinton don’t do as well. If someone makes a sexist attack, you certainly do have the right to get angry and demand an apology. But the smart thing to do would then be to give a big deep historic speech about sexism in the country, a la Obama.

And now … advice for Obama

I’m a nobody, so I suspect no one of consequence will read this, but still, here’s what I do. Obama, you clearly have a problem with Hillary voters who felt their candidate was the subject of unfair misogynistic attacks. You gave an historic speech on race. Now give one on gender. Reach out to them. Be honest and say “Yes, I should given this speech earlier”. I think you’re underestimating the amount of convincing you have to do, so get started now. The longer you wait, the more it’ll look like pandering.

And if you must pander, you can try nominating a female VP candidate. Kathleen Sebelius, the popular governor from Kansas, is actually a good choice on her own (non-gender) merits.

Advice for Hillary

The odds of you winning are between 0 and 2%. The delegate math doesn’t work out — you need to win something like 90% of the remaining races (you didn’t even get that in West Virginia) to win that count. And you’re not going to get the superdelegates to overturn the pledged delegates, especially since Mark Penn and Patti Solis Doyle didn’t exactly demonstrate the strength of your campaign. If some massive revelation destroys Obama before the convention, you’re still the default second choice so you can make your efforts then. Otherwise, your only chance at success is to tear the party apart and that’ll earn you enough ill will that you might not even be able to keep your Senate seat.

You’re also unlikely to get the VP slot. Even without the wounds inflicted during the primary, it would be difficult thanks to your long history (you really thought you heard the last of Whitewater, presidential pardons, etc.?).

But you can sure as hell keep trying. And maybe you’ll end up winning, being VP, or maybe Senate Majority Leader. Or something. And right now, that requires making nice and being honest. Your top negatives are that you are seen as a dishonest conniving politician willing to do anything to win (and it’s not gender-related; Bill has the same problem). So apologize for those tactics. Repudiate them. Maybe talk about how your gender influenced your Iraq war vote — that has to be an interesting topic and one that could win you goodwill. Talk about race to finally settle that old dinosaur that the Clintons have suddenly become racists. Maybe time it with an Obama speech on gender. People start to like you again and maybe you’ll get more (good things) than you bargained for.

Tags: American politics, Barack Obama, Election 2008, Hillary Clinton, racism, sexism